A senior economic adviser aligned with former President Donald Trump is forecasting what he calls an unprecedented windfall for American taxpayers, with refund checks next year expected to reach historic levels. As families continue to worry about rising costs, the promise of larger refunds and stronger paychecks is being framed as proof that economic momentum is building.
Refund Checks Could Reach Record Highs
Kevin Hassett, who previously led the National Economic Council and is seen as a top contender for a future Federal Reserve role, says the coming tax season could dwarf anything Americans have seen before.
“We are going to see the biggest refund cycle ever in the history of America, and people are going to get massive refund checks,”
He added that the impact would be felt immediately by households filing their returns.
“We’re expecting just that part of it alone to be worth a couple-thousand-dollar refund … the numbers are striking.”
According to Hassett, these gains are not theoretical. Instead, he argues they are the result of policy choices designed to raise incomes and lower inflation at the same time.
Trump Promises Major Savings for Families
President Trump echoed that message in a recent address, predicting that next spring will bring what he described as “the largest tax refund season of all time”. He also said many families could see annual savings ranging from $11,000 to $20,000 once all changes are fully reflected.
Supporters of the plan say those figures would offer meaningful relief at a time when confidence in the economy remains shaky for many households.
Pushing Back on Pessimism About the Economy
Recent polling has shown widespread concern about personal finances and the broader economy. Hassett dismissed that pessimism, pointing instead to wage growth that he says is clearly outpacing inflation.
“You saw in the jobs report that … wages for the typical worker were up 3.7%. So if you’re running 3.7% wage increases at 1.6% core inflation, then real wages are growing at a rate of about 2 [to] 2.5%. By our estimates right now, blue-collar workers have already seen an almost $2,000 raise this year after inflation, because wages are growing so much faster than prices,”
In his view, those numbers tell a different story than public sentiment suggests.
Why Many Americans Haven’t Felt the Impact Yet
Hassett acknowledged that economic improvements often take time to register in people’s day-to-day lives. He pointed to delays in how tax changes are reflected on paychecks and tax forms.
“I think that what happens in the end — and this is what happened in the first [Trump] term — is that people will see it in their wallets,”
He explained that earlier reforms followed a similar pattern.
“We didn’t pass the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ until the middle of the summer. And so a lot of the tax changes, which affect last year, weren’t in any tax forms that people filled out at the beginning of the year.”
As a result, he argues, the full benefit often shows up later, particularly during refund season.
Cooling Inflation Fuels Optimism
Beyond tax refunds, Hassett highlighted what he described as encouraging inflation data late last year. He credited an aggressive focus on boosting supply for easing price pressures across the economy.
“What’s happened is, as we predicted throughout this term, that if you really put the pedal to the metal on aggregate supply, then that’s gonna put downward pressure on prices,”
Looking back to Trump’s first term, he suggested history may be repeating itself.
“And don’t forget, that’s where we were last time in President Trump’s first term. We were growing in the 3% range, and we had inflation in the 1% range. And it looks like that’s where we are again.”
If those trends continue, supporters say, next year’s tax season could become a defining moment for households waiting to feel tangible financial relief.
