In a high-profile development, the FBI reportedly conducted a raid at the Manhattan residence of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan on Wednesday morning. The raid occurred shortly after the prediction platform forecasted former President Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election—a call that some within the company have suggested led to the raid as alleged “political retribution.”
According to Polymarket’s spokesperson, this action reflects “obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election.”
Raid Details Spark Public Debate on Government Motivations
The New York Post was the first to report that the raid involved FBI agents confiscating Coplan’s electronic devices, including his phone, while he was at his SoHo apartment. Hours after the raid, Coplan appeared to reference the incident humorously on X, posting, “new phone, who dis?”
Polymarket Defends Platform’s Transparency
As a public, transparent prediction market, Polymarket has often highlighted its role in enabling the public to better understand political and economic trends. “Polymarket is a fully transparent prediction market that helps everyday people better understand the events that matter most to them, including elections,” stated the Polymarket spokesperson. “We charge no fees, take no trading positions, and allow observers from around the world to analyze all market data as a public good.”
Platform’s Accurate Prediction of Trump’s Victory May Have Attracted Scrutiny
The timing of the FBI’s reported actions against Coplan coincided with Polymarket’s recent 2024 election prediction, which placed Donald Trump’s odds of winning at 58.6% on Election Day. This projection led to heightened attention on the platform, which, in recent months, has seen a 500% increase in wagers, amassing nearly $1 billion in open bets. The surge is attributed to high-stakes predictions on major political outcomes.
Coplan voiced concerns over the nature of the investigation, questioning if political motives could be involved.
“It’s discouraging that the current administration would seek a last-ditch effort to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents,” Coplan wrote on X.
He further emphasized the company’s commitment to non-partisanship, stating, “We are deeply committed to being non-partisan, and today is no different, but the incumbents should do some self-reflecting and recognize that taking a more pro-business, pro-startup approach may be what would have changed their fate this election.”
A Financial Windfall Draws Eyes to Polymarket
Polymarket’s reach and influence in political betting are underscored by its backing from high-profile investors like Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, which invested around $70 million. The platform also gained attention recently when a French bettor known as Théo made headlines for reportedly earning an $85 million profit through Trump bets on Polymarket. “I have nothing more to add,” Théo told the Wall Street Journal. “To be frank, I’m a bit tired of the whole thing – I’d like to fade back into my normal daily life.”
