“President-elect Trump flipped six highly competitive states in his election victory last week — but his gains with voters were not limited to the battlegrounds.”
Trump improved his performance not only in swing states but also across the country, from conservative regions to historically Democratic strongholds. His coalition grew significantly as he focused on two key campaign issues: the economy and immigration.
Battleground Success and Surprising Gains in Blue States
“Trump gained in all seven of the battleground states. He gained 1.8 points in Michigan and Pennsylvania, 1.4 points in Georgia, just over a point in North Carolina, and under a point in Wisconsin.”
Trump’s strongest gains were in Nevada and Arizona, where substantial votes remain to be counted. However, his performance wasn’t limited to these battleground states.
“The 2024 presidential election was marked by broad swings in favor of President-elect Trump across the country, including pickups of several key counties.”
In traditionally Democratic areas, the shift was just as striking.
“His strongest improvement was in New York, where the former and future president gained 6.4 points.” This increase spread across the state and included all five New York City boroughs, where votes are still being finalized.
“He also posted a 5-point improvement in neighboring New Jersey, enough to reduce the margin of his loss to just 5.5 points. That is the best performance for a Republican candidate in more than three decades.”
These gains make states like New Jersey and Virginia, where Trump improved by 2.4 points since 2020, potential focal points for future elections.
“Trump also took more vote share in Illinois (Trump +4.2 since 2020), another Democratic state with a highly populated urban area.”
Expanding Republican Appeal
“President-elect Trump made vast improvements over his 2020 numbers, particularly in urban areas and, most surprisingly, in reliably blue states.”
Florida, once a competitive battleground, saw Trump gain an additional 5 points, solidifying Republican dominance in the state. Meanwhile, conservative states like Texas, Tennessee, South Carolina, and Idaho also saw a 3-point improvement in Trump’s performance.
“In fact, as of this writing, there isn’t a single state in the country where Trump turned in a weaker performance than he did four years ago.”
Harris’ Gains Were Limited
“So far, Harris has only outperformed President Biden’s vote share in one state: Utah, where she gained 0.6 points since the last election.”
Even in Utah, Trump outpaced her gains, while third-party candidates experienced a decline.
“But even in Utah, Trump also performed about a point better than he did in 2020. It is third-party candidates who saw the most erosion. (And there are many ballots left to count.)”
In some scattered counties across the nation, Harris found limited success.
“The vice president did 2 to 9 points better in a few counties in the Georgia metropolitan area, led by Henry, Rockdale and Douglas.”
She also made modest progress in certain North Carolina counties affected by Hurricane Helene, including Buncombe, Henderson, and Transylvania, with about 4-point gains in each.
“Kaufman County, in the Dallas suburbs, also bucked the national trend. That Texas county swung about 6 points towards Harris.”
Other isolated gains included Chaffee County in Colorado, known as the “Heart of the Rockies,” and parts of Oregon and Washington, which might lean more Democratic once counting concludes.
“And there are signs that parts of Oregon and Washington could end up more Democratic than 2020 when counting is finished.”
Still, these exceptions highlighted a broader trend.
“These are the exceptions to a clear rule: voters almost uniformly swung away from the Democrats this cycle.”
Trump’s Leadership Resonated with Voters
“Trump’s victory was powered by his strength on the economy and immigration — two of voters’ top concerns. He was seen as a stronger leader than Harris in a time of turmoil, and voters remembered his presidency more fondly than their evaluations of the current administration.”
By focusing on these defining issues, Trump expanded his appeal among key demographics.
“Trump ran up the score with his base while narrowing traditional Democratic advantages among Black, Hispanic and young voters.”
Trump’s 2024 election victory reshaped the political landscape, not just by flipping battleground states but by making significant inroads in traditionally Democratic territories. His focus on economic stability and immigration reform resonated with voters nationwide, creating a coalition that cut across demographic lines and redrew the political map.
